Research

Publications

Home (not so) sweet home: remote work and medical leaves in Brazil

(with Elisa Peres) — Labour Economics, 2026

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented shift to remote work worldwide. In this paper, we investigate the dual impact of this transition on physical and mental health by analyzing over 1.5 million medical leaves in Brazil from 2018 to 2021. Using a differences-in-differences model, we compare workers from firms that transitioned to remote work (non-essential services) and the ones that stayed commuting to their workplace (essential services) before and after the pandemic. Our paper reveals a significant decrease in labor accidents, primarily driven by fewer bodily injuries, but a substantial increase in medical leaves related to mental health issues, particularly among men. The abrupt transition to remote work and increased domestic responsibilities in a setting of social distancing norms likely contributed to elevated stress levels and work-life conflicts. Our finding highlights remote work’s contrasting health impacts during the pandemic and underscores the need for targeted mental health support in remote work policies.

Dismantling a Market for Stolen Goods: evidence from the regulation of junkyards in Brazil

Journal of Development Economics, 2025

Media Coverage: Vox Dev — How regulating junkyards reduced car theft in Brazil

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of monitoring and market regulation on the illicit market for stolen goods, focusing on the association between junkyards and auto theft. I explore the effects of a state-level regulation implemented in São Paulo in 2014, which enhanced supervision of the auto parts market. I find an 8.11% decline in auto theft for municipalities presenting at least one junkyard specialized in auto parts compared to the control group. Additionally, I provide evidence of a meaningful decrease in vehicle insurance prices, suggesting tangible economic benefits for citizens as a result of lower crime rates. These findings offer crucial insights into market regulation as a crime deterrence strategy to reduce the trade of stolen goods, highlighting its complementarity with traditional public security policies.

When Streets Have No Men: Urban Traffic Restrictions and Air Pollution

(with Lucas Macoris, Naércio Menezes-Filho) — Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2024

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze two quasi-experiments to assess how urban traffic restrictions and social distancing norms affect pollution levels in the municipality São Paulo, one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world. First, using hourly air pollution levels measured in thirty-three monitoring stations in the state of São Paulo, we exploit exogenous variation in quarantine rules following the COVID-19 outbreak to estimate how social distancing norms affected pollution levels across different municipalities. We find an average decrease of 22.4% in air pollution after the first days of the capital’s quarantine announcement, with heterogeneous effects across pollutants, driven by decreases in the vehicle fleet and urban mobility. Second, we compare this effect with another quasi-experiment that explores exogenous suspensions of traffic restriction rules between 2000–2018 in the municipality of São Paulo. We also document increases in pollution levels when more cars are allowed in the streets, with an average increase of 16.7% in air pollution. Finally, we use our estimates to show that a reduction of 4.7 times the estimated ATT in the quarantine period is necessary to reach the capital’s long-term air quality goals.

Public versus private wage differential in Brazilian public firms

(with Enlinson Mattos) — EconomiA, 2020

Abstract

This work explores that Brazilian public firms were allowed to hire workers either as statutory (“civil servants”) as well as under private market labor regime (“CLT”). We use RAIS that matches employer-employee data for all formal firms in Brazil from 2014 to 2016 to control for fixed effects at the individual and firm levels and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to quantify the size of the wage differential explained by the labor regime versus individual characteristics. We find that CLT civil servants earn in average R$ 310.00 per month less than similar statutory positions, a difference of 13% comparing the average wage of each group. Only for high skilled workers we found a salary R$ 95.98 larger for CLT employees. Last, our decomposition strategy reveals that the largest share of the gap is not explained by endowments differences.

Working Papers

Motorized and More Motivated? Militarized Patrols and Crime in Ceará, Brazil

(with Joana Monteiro, Michael Lee Weintraub)

Status: Revise and Resubmit, American Political Science Review

Abstract

Countries in the developing world bear high costs associated with violent crime. Diverse solutions to reducing violent crime focus on retooling police forces, but these approaches have proven inadequate because the problems run so deep. Can new, more militarized, and better-motivated squads reduce crime? Using two different empirical approaches — a difference-in-differences strategy and a regression discontinuity design that uses a population threshold to determine program eligibility — we evaluate the roll-out of the Rondas e Ações Intensivas e Ostensivas (RAIO) across municipalities in Ceará, Brazil, a state of nearly 10 million inhabitants. We find meaningful reductions in homicides and property crimes. Given that we find no increases in arrests, we believe the crime reduction effects are likely due to deterrence, rather than incapacitation of criminals. We pair these crime results with a citizen survey in Fortaleza, Ceará’s capital, which includes embedded survey experiments, to better understand the mechanisms behind these improvements in public safety.

The state strikes back: evidence from a huge police crackdown in Brazil

Status: Draft

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of Operação Verão, a high-intensity policing initiative launched in São Paulo state, on crime rates and police lethality. Using municipal-level monthly panel data and difference-in-differences models, I find that while the operation significantly increased police use of lethal force, its effect on most crime indicators was small and short-lived. These results raise concerns about the cost effectiveness and strategic value of such interventions.

The Supply Side of Certainty: Investigative Accountability and Homicide Clearance in Brazil

(with Giovanna Úbidda)

Status: Draft coming soon

Abstract

Brazil cleared just 36 percent of homicides in 2023, far below comparable countries, with large consequences for the certainty of punishment. We study Portaria 580/2021, a police management reform in the state of Para´ıba that formalized accountability structures around police precincts and specialized homicide investigation units. Using case-level administrative data on 11,283 homicides across 223 municipalities from 2015 to 2023, we compare municipalities hosting an investigative unit with non-host municipalities before and after the reform. Our preferred estimator implies a 76 percent compression in the expected time to clearance, whereas the probability of clearance increased by 7.7 percentage points, a 16 percent improvement over the pre-reform mean. We leverage the richness of our dataset to explore potential mechanisms driving our results. Null results for flagrante arrests, arrest rates, and prosecutorial indictments confirm that gains operate through the investigative channel, not through general enforcement activity. The findings provide the first quasi-experimental evidence that investigative accountability structures causally affect homicide clearance.

Policy Work

Selected policy-oriented work and reports.